Enough to counter the disappearance of the 85% of export income Saudi Arabia gets from oil?
Enough to counter the fact that Russia gets 52% of its federal revenue from oil and gas?
I find it hard to believe that making desalination a little cheaper, or transport a little less expensive will even come close to counter balancing those sort of percentages.
And even if it did, the relative importance of nations will change. Nations that were important because they had fossil fuels will become less important, and nations that were held back by lack of resources could become more powerful.
Those sorts of changes in power balances would cause a lot of turbulence.
Saudi Arabia has 27 million people; Norway has 5 million; Canada has 30 million.
The massive leap forward that goes with any new breakthrough in energy supply or cost, is without question worth the potentially negative effects those countries will suffer. Saudi Arabia can find other ways to build economy, as so many other countries that lack oil have to do.
Russia is the only one on the list that worries me, because of what a truly destabilized Russia might cause.
Venezuela might even benefit from their oil system going to zero. It'll force their leadership and people to move to a functional political system, and away from the oil welfare bribery that Chavez used which has crippled the nation.
Enough to counter the fact that Russia gets 52% of its federal revenue from oil and gas?
I find it hard to believe that making desalination a little cheaper, or transport a little less expensive will even come close to counter balancing those sort of percentages.
And even if it did, the relative importance of nations will change. Nations that were important because they had fossil fuels will become less important, and nations that were held back by lack of resources could become more powerful.
Those sorts of changes in power balances would cause a lot of turbulence.