i think you're over-estimating the 'situational awareness' of many grads (myself included back in the day). while it's great that lots of first timers are entering the tertiary system and gaining degrees, they don't have the family or professional networks that can help them spot 'risky' decisions. i was the first in my family to go to uni let alone get a PhD - looking back i had NFI what was going on. getting a phd is neccessary (i knew that) but not sufficient (i did not know that) to be a pro-scientist. with the benefit of hindsight, i probably zigged instead of zagged in my MSc and from there the odds were totally stacked against me - just took me another 10 years to realise... further - is suspect the 'long september' effect in science to continue for a lot longer - there will always be a surplus of young and eager proto-scientists who will drive the cost down and the competition up.