It's worth pointing out that there were a lot of people in "our circle" who have been pointing out for a long time that decentralization of governance has been getting only more and more possible over time, and that the same forces that created enormous monoliths in the 20th century may cause their breakup in the 21st.
I think 9-11 sort of put a spike in the wheels of that discussion for a while for various complicated reasons, but in the meantime the forces have marched on and aren't getting any less compelling, while in the meantime confidence in big institutions is low and still dropping.
Even as right now in the US it looks like the forces of centralization are riding strong, given how poorly performing they have been and how people are ever-more increasingly distrustful of the central government, I would be very unsurprised to see 2016's Presidential election turn into a big "state's rights" fight, or some other narrative fundamentally about solving things with further centralization vs. decentralization, with the centralization party riding into very strong headwinds by 2016. If not 2016 than I think very likely by 2020.
One thing I sort of find interesting about this is that the US has a very, very clear structural path back to decentralizing itself without requiring any major upset. It's something that can be done cleanly and gradually, without revolution or uprising. Perhaps the US will decline in the 21st century, but I do not find it as inevitable as some people do.
I think 9-11 sort of put a spike in the wheels of that discussion for a while for various complicated reasons, but in the meantime the forces have marched on and aren't getting any less compelling, while in the meantime confidence in big institutions is low and still dropping.
Even as right now in the US it looks like the forces of centralization are riding strong, given how poorly performing they have been and how people are ever-more increasingly distrustful of the central government, I would be very unsurprised to see 2016's Presidential election turn into a big "state's rights" fight, or some other narrative fundamentally about solving things with further centralization vs. decentralization, with the centralization party riding into very strong headwinds by 2016. If not 2016 than I think very likely by 2020.
One thing I sort of find interesting about this is that the US has a very, very clear structural path back to decentralizing itself without requiring any major upset. It's something that can be done cleanly and gradually, without revolution or uprising. Perhaps the US will decline in the 21st century, but I do not find it as inevitable as some people do.