Very Nassim Taleb. These are great books NT's written that discuss our susceptibility to survivorship bias and other rational failings we have: Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan.
Yes! You're right I'm hardly the first people to talk about such things. The Black Swan is a classic although oddly enough right now on the front page of HN there's a critique of Black Swan that pokes holes in it. :-)
But yes it's true there's lots of good material on these subjects for those who want to explore further. Hopefully my piece whetted your appetite -- it's not the final word!
