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> which runs out: hands-on pilot skills, or cheap petroleum to fuel commercial aviation

Are you kidding? Have you seen the numbers for fracking and methane hydrates? The age of cheap hydrocarbon fuel seems to be beginning, not ending.

What that means for the environment I don't know, but the numbers, if they bear out (and they certainly are for fracking) are stunning.



Fracking increases extraction temporarily with very rapid well depletion rates. Continued extraction requires drilling more wells. Compare this with oil production from traditional "whale" fields in which a single well can deliver for decades. This vastly increases capital costs and reduces EROEI.

Methane hydrates are yet unproven, and present their own very serious challenges.

In either case, the prospects for global warming and emissions management attack the other side of my statement: cheap abundant fossil fuels. While coal exist to supply needs for (depending on whom you talk to) 100-1000 years, the evidence suggests that the climate and our economy won't tolerate the emissions resulting from its consumption.

Coal-to-liquids infrastructure is very expensive and takes a long time to ramp up.

What are your source(s) for fracking production? Sincerely interested.


Methane being a much more potent greenhouse gas is worrying, especially with regards to hydrates.


Definitely. If the methane thing pans out .. well, in 10 years time we'll probably be totally desensitised to news headlines that read something like "Reflective cloud seeding program starting over Pacific basin" or "Mirror assembly nearing completion at LaGrange Point".

I just don't think we have the ability to stop ourselves huffing at that hydrocarbon crack pipe so I think we'll have to switch to management rather than prevention in this generation.




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