"there's also the effect of the newer policing techniques"
Or the non-effect of them.
Crime rates have dropped drastically across the board, across the
country, in many places that didn't make their policing policies more
fascist as NYC's government chose to.
From the MJ article:
Second, and far more puzzling, it's not just New York that has
seen a big drop in crime. In city after city, violent crime peaked
in the early '90s and then began a steady and spectacular
decline. Washington, DC, didn't have either Giuliani or Bratton, but
its violent crime rate has dropped 58 percent since its
peak. Dallas' has fallen 70 percent. Newark: 74 percent. Los
Angeles: 78 percent.
There must be more going on here than just a change in policing
tactics in one city.
It's really not that puzzling. Incarceration rates have skyrocketed in tandem with the drop in crime. What's puzzling is the number of analysts who keep on missing this most obvious piece of the pie.