That could only be strange for him if he doesn't understand the structure of the war or he hasn't been following current events.
Assad was only able to take back Syria with air support from Russia, ground support from Hezbollah and re-enforcement by Iran and other Iranian aligned groups in Syria.
Russia is busy and drained of resources because of its misadventure in Ukraine, Hezbollah is reeling from it's shocking loss to Israel while Israel has been targeting Hezbollah and anything vaguely tainted by Iran in Syria for years now. Iran itself is being very careful with that it's doing after losing so much of the long-term strategic positioning it invested in.
All of that, that was what was holding back opposition. SAA couldn't have done it in the first place without that support and that support later became security while SAA had other things to do. When it was weakened, the opportunity began to exist.
My personal opinion is that it's been a while since that security actually existed and due to all of the above mentioned problems, it's been a bluff for longer than it has seemed. When the Aleppo lines collapsed, HTS figured this out and acted swiftly to take advantage of that fact. SDF and the southern front joined in when they say they were having so much success.
Taleb should know better, or not be commenting. It makes it sound like a conspiracy theory or something.
> That could only be strange for him if he doesn't understand the structure of the war or he hasn't been following current events.
Maybe he doesn't. There's nothing wrong with that. It feels surreal to me and like it came out of nowhere.
I'm also sort of frustrated that none of the coverage or comments I see go into how this happened or what lead to it. Nobody is trying to figure out or explain what's actually going on and why now.
Well, what I mean is it sounds like he's trying to insinuate something. Maybe he's just coming from your position, but in the position that he's in, I think he has far more responsibility than that and shouldn't be commenting on things he hasn't spent five minutes researching. While the timing is extremely surprising, all of the factors involved were covered non-stop in Western media for the last year or so. This is by no means a Black Swan event.
edit: It sounds like to wanted to know more. Check out r/syriancivilwar.
For me, Taleb is the Levante expert, I simply don't know anyone else.
His view that the interference of all possible powers has only brought disaster seems plausible to me. He has criticized the export of fanaticism from Saudi Arabia in particular for a while.
The downfall of a regime is perhaps simply difficult to predict.
I experienced this in the case of the GDR. Suddenly it was gone, everyone was astonished.
He is smart and independent. I trust him not having a geopolitical agenda, he cares for the people living in the region. And I think he is a true intellectual with a great interest in history.
Strangely enough, there is good Middle East reporting in Germany by academically educated journalists.
Kristin Helberg is great, she reminds me of Peter Scholl Latour in his good times.
Assad was only able to take back Syria with air support from Russia, ground support from Hezbollah and re-enforcement by Iran and other Iranian aligned groups in Syria.
Russia is busy and drained of resources because of its misadventure in Ukraine, Hezbollah is reeling from it's shocking loss to Israel while Israel has been targeting Hezbollah and anything vaguely tainted by Iran in Syria for years now. Iran itself is being very careful with that it's doing after losing so much of the long-term strategic positioning it invested in.
All of that, that was what was holding back opposition. SAA couldn't have done it in the first place without that support and that support later became security while SAA had other things to do. When it was weakened, the opportunity began to exist.
My personal opinion is that it's been a while since that security actually existed and due to all of the above mentioned problems, it's been a bluff for longer than it has seemed. When the Aleppo lines collapsed, HTS figured this out and acted swiftly to take advantage of that fact. SDF and the southern front joined in when they say they were having so much success.
Taleb should know better, or not be commenting. It makes it sound like a conspiracy theory or something.