You need probabilistic forecasting for everything. I used it with great success to forecast the costs of the general renovation of an apartment we were moving into. Seeing the shapes and ranges of distributions was very informative (and in particular informed the decision on whether and when to take an extra loan). Can't imagine doing it any other way now, even though I had to hack my way into doing it, because approximately none of the tools I know of support this out of the box.
(I ended up using Guesstimate for it - https://www.getguesstimate.com/ - pushing it to the limit of nearly hanging my browser.)
Problem is, most people seem to be overwhelmed by those ideas. It's not hard, but then again multiplication isn't hard either, and most people are afraid of that too. This is a problem because software tends to target the lowest common denominator, which is how we get a million Trello clones, but no tools that understand that work breaks into DAGs, not 2-level-deep trees, or that Gantt charts are good to have, or that probabilistic Gantt charts would be even better.
(I ended up using Guesstimate for it - https://www.getguesstimate.com/ - pushing it to the limit of nearly hanging my browser.)
Problem is, most people seem to be overwhelmed by those ideas. It's not hard, but then again multiplication isn't hard either, and most people are afraid of that too. This is a problem because software tends to target the lowest common denominator, which is how we get a million Trello clones, but no tools that understand that work breaks into DAGs, not 2-level-deep trees, or that Gantt charts are good to have, or that probabilistic Gantt charts would be even better.