The key line "I’m getting a similar sense for the recent US foreign interventions and wars. They all seem to work slightly better than they should."

There is no measurement of efficacy here. It feels like these things are working better because the US military is now doing big public things, but that is not necessarily a good change over not-doing-big-public-things.

Yeah, that was exactly where he lost me. The US military doesn't need a remarkable amount of luck for these operations to be tactical successes, tactical risk wasn't the reason previous administrations didn't do them. The element that was missing was a complete disregard for second order consequences, and Claude has nothing to do with that whatsoever.

Wait where does the idea of consciousness enter this? AGI doesn't need to be conscious.

It's not a liquid, but it's pretty soft.

But can he speak Italian lawn games?

For that to be relevant to this post, they would need to write with secretary hand.

I look forward, should this prove correct, to the explainers from Quanta, Numberphile, etc.

The edginess was, at the core of it, what made them fun in the first place

You're right, you just can't make memories without injecting ink into your skin.

Right, which tells us that what was fun about it was feeling cool for doing something unusual.

> Progress in AI is happening faster than ever before

Is it happening faster than it was six months ago? a year ago?