They got to this level of progress with maybe a million users input and feed back. Now they will have 1000s of plugins feeding them with high quality structured data and 100s of millions of users feeding it. They are also going multi modal and have billions in capital to expand the size and scale of the network. The probability that this is peak gpt seems very unlikely. I expect they will have a post grad level of intelligence gpt across the board in less than 5 years.
No white collar job will be valued the same since GPT will basically be doing most of the work and we will maybe review it and steer it. We will just keep feeding it and it will know everything at the cutting edge of all fields.
I mean when enough people are unemployed they will just vote to socialize the society. Also, massive deflation will reset the global economy. The social ladder as you call it will flatten pretty hard. At that point we nationalize and ubi with work being some kind of minimum amount a year to qualify for ubi. Work hours per year will drop alot. I think society will transform for the better where we start developing towards a post scarcity deflationary future rather than the inflationary rat race we have now.
I like how it ends with it can write code that is repetitive and has many examples of solutions floating around which is most of coding.
It will probably edge upward as well as time goes by till there are only very edge problems that it cannot solve. Even then I would use it to write the broken down version of the solution. It is going to be getting fed by pretty much every programmer,knowledge profession on the planet using copilots of some sort. Eventually it will have knowledge transferred everything humans can do into its model.
Lets see. They are arogant fascists who think they know better than their customers. They charge a lot more but do not provide anything more than their competitors and often less. The company lives and dies on marketting and perception. They are the micrsoft of the Unix world and I hope they go to 0 because they are bad for progress and bad for technological diversity.
The last human surveys the burnt husk of his dying planet, suppressing pangs of awe as the gleaming computronium ships - no more puzzles left to solve - turn and flicker out of space-time in search of new challenges elsewhere.
"Clever, but nothing to do with general intelligence," he mumbles under his breath as the flames consume him.
Brute force statistical inference over millions of examples is an advance, but it is an advance that falls within the same paradigm of machine learning that we've had for decades. IMO, it will really take a paradigm shift to move into general intelligence.
Obviously accomplishments like this are interesting for their own sake. But the really interesting question for me is, is there anything here, that is new, that can be used outside of tree-based games of complete information? (A much weaker question, is there anything new here that can be used in other games?)
Let's take the ability to match the best humans at various tasks. If we put doing long multiplication better than the best human at "1", and passing the Turing Test at "10", where is a Go playing engine? I'd say less than "2", but still higher than chess.
Much higher (but still short of general intelligence, obviously) would be beating the best humans at language translation, proving math theorems, or answering factual questions phrased in natural language. Then, if and when computers can write novels which you'd prefer to read over the best human author, now we're talking.
So I think, we don't need to worry about our humanity here yet, and we're not remotely close. Over less than a century we've gone from outperforming humans in arithmetic to outperforming us in things that are a little less like arithmetic but still discrete games modeled by trees and precise searches.
> Much higher (but still short of general intelligence, obviously) would be beating the best humans at language translation, proving math theorems, or answering factual questions phrased in natural language. Then, if and when computers can write novels which you'd prefer to read over the best human author, now we're talking.
There's a lot of similarity. Take math theorem proving, which is an active area of machine learning; the algorithms tend at the moment to look something like create a tree of possible theorems, then the algorithm tries to traverse down the tree towards the target theorem by evaluating each branch by the probability it leads towards the target. Because of the exponential explosion, it's very important to select good theorems to expand at each level of the tree, and the ML algorithms can learn characteristics of good intermediate theorems by learning on the existing corpuses of machine-checkable proofs, which gives them much higher success rates in reaching target theorems. So right now the best theorem-provers can already reprove a lot of existing proofs. But they're using stuff like SVMs last I saw, and were much less sophisticated than a deep q-learner.
It is going to be hard to monitize blockchain just like torrents.I think it is best developed by a non for profit that is funded by some major players to keep it unbias and trustworthy to the benifit of market participants.
Augmented reality may actually be the solution. Think about it, virtual items replace real ones this is huge on its own for the planet.You no longer need a phone , laptop, tv,random toys, etc. No more driving to work, offices are no longer required and replaced by virtual ones you can be in from anywhere with all office equipment and staff virtualized. The list keeps going on and for everything you add to it less of the planets resources are being used.
I think AR and VR along with lab grown animal protein of multiple varieties will reverse a tremendous amount of our planetary fleecing. This vision is at least 20+ years away ,but it is definitely a good answer to many of our problems.
No white collar job will be valued the same since GPT will basically be doing most of the work and we will maybe review it and steer it. We will just keep feeding it and it will know everything at the cutting edge of all fields.