You could just buy deep out of money SP500 puts expiring in 1+ year. That way you would be "insured" against the bubble popping.
The thing is, every dollar you spend on insurance is a dollar (and its interest) you lose. Furthermore, we don't know when it will pop. 1 year? 5 years?
The more reasonable solution is probably gradually reduce exposure to US markets by selling SP500 shares and turning to Europe and emerging markets ETFs. No need to cash out 401k.
If you just look at the past 20 years, the US has had exceptional returns compared to the rest of the world.
The thing is, historically, high PE ratios like what we're seeing in the US do not correlate with short term returns that are as high. Expected future returns decrease as the PE ratios go up in a pretty linear fashion.
Why 20 years? Just because we know, post hoc, the usa outperformed other places in the last 20 years, in no way means the next 20 years will be the same.
If you want a different point to backtest from, try Japan in the 80s and early 90s
trust goes both ways. you can be cynical about people who take things without paying, i guess. i prefer to be cynical about the corporations who run and stock these grocery stores with substandard products at artificially inflated prices that benefit shareholders and disadvantage people who need to eat food to live.
Think about blaming the grocery store replacing workers with no one in particular before you blame some college pranksters.
Grocery stores in general consolidating, laying off workers, leaving them without pay/benefits, taking advantage of greedflation, etc., is a bigger drain on society.
Shadowy? Kroger's and Albertsons weren't allowed to merge due to anticompetitive practices, price hikes, etc. This was only a couple years ago & is out in the open. You can point all your fingers and toes at the boards of these companies if you need to.
Is it possible that grocery stores are reducing positions to save money? Is it not possible that it is a feedback loop? Why are we blaming the grocery store for replacing labor with machines? Why don't we decry the grocery that hires only 2 people instead of 3?
It's entirely possible that both can be wrong. Shoplifting is bad, but "big corporations pocketing the saved money after understaffing and passing their labor off to the customer" is also bad. We should decry the grocery that hires 2 people instead of 3 just to profit more.
All grocery stores are introducing self-checkout as a way to reduce staffing. It's not a shadowy conspiracy, it's a legitimate fact. Many customers would much rather check out with a person.
> Many customers would much rather check out with a person.
I'm like 50/50 on that. If I've got a lot of stuff it's nice having the space of a full lane for bagging along with another set of hands helping (even more if they still have dedicated baggers!). But if I'm just getting a handful of items a self checkout is faster than waiting in a queue for a full service lane. But if there's a long queue for the self checkout then forget it. If I have to wait I'll wait for service.
I still just prefer the scan and go stuff the most though. Scan with my phone as I shop, check out with a confirmation on the phone, roll on through to the car. I wish all my shopping was that smooth.
I mean, it isn’t really a prank, it is just small scale stealing. It’s fine to not care about that sort of thing, or think it is morally defensible for people who can’t afford food to steal it. But there’s no punchline to make it a prank.
This feels like a thought exercise rather than an argument.
By your logic, it's impossible to prove that a car is driving at 60mph. There could be an error in the speedometer which makes it impossible to verify that said car is going at the speed. You can get asymptomatically close to being sure that you're driving at 60 mph but you can never be 100% sure.
That's not correct. You can prove a car is driving 60mph as soon as you measure it doing that. "proving a negative" is for statements like "There are no purple zebra". You can never prove this because there is always the possibility the purple zebra is somewhere you haven't looked yet. As soon as you find one the statement becomes falsified, but until then it always remains unresolved even if almost certainly true.
Linking back to the parent statement, it's hard to prove a program has no bugs when there is always the possibility the bug just hasn't been found yet. On the flip side it's easy to prove something does have bugs as soon as you find one.
How do you know the one purple zebra wasn't just walking around in a way that meant they were always not where you were looking?
You can probabilistic say "it's extremely unlikely purple zebras exist" but you can never prove 100% they don't exist. And back to the real example, how can you prove there isn't a bug you just haven't found yet?
Sounds kinda like pain stimming. I'm not personally a fan, but that's a thing some autistic people do. They make purpose-built toys for that, though you might already be set with your laptop.
I am autistic and I also enjoy the sharp edges, I rub my wrists up and down them sometimes and generally play with them, I find it very satisfying. I also suspect the laptop might not be as easy to carry around when open if edges were rounded?
I'm conflicted -- the author's rounded Mac looks more comfortable to use, but aesthetically it looks worse. He turned the track pad notch into an amorphous shape that looks like a mistake.
There's certainly a % of mac users who prioritize aesthetics over function.
I feel like there's got to be a way to do this in a way that's more attractive though. Maybe something more gradual or even.
I suspect that with all things Apple 10% really care, 80% are indifferent and 10% really hate it. The middle 80% are happy to be led by those that really care.
I don't think there's anything inherently autistic about that. We just finally have these technologies sufficiently mature that materials and design are no longer strictly dictated by their function.
These objects are becoming more like clothing and less like unyielding industrial machines. It's to the point that I'd be genuinely disgusted to handle any used laptop regardless of how "clean" it is.
Low value add manufacturing is not coming back to America unless people are willing to work for $2/hour and the government lets factories dump waste into rivers.
For me it's the opposite. I am a bit surprised that inflation halved buying power since 2000.
In my mind those level of interest usually come from the stock market or house appreciation, but I guess those are much faster (I seem to recall doubling every 8 years in the stock market and housing being a bit slower).
It would be useful if you explain how you calculate it. I mean, if you just apply a decaying exponential function, anyone can do that on their calculator.
I think the more interesting thing to chew on is how this will look over the next 25 years. The numbers will be... huge. 75k salary in 2000 is similar to 150k salary in 2026, project that out to 2050...
Something feels like it'll give out, but I've felt that way for 8 years at this point and I haven't been correct.
SimCity, Starcraft, etc. taught me the value of saving up. But after some decades in the real world, I think computer games should simulate inflation so youth can get some practice at this!
> Web apps work everywhere. The web has grown increasingly powerful and capable. Why would I invest in a technology that can only run on a single OS? Doesn't make sense.
For me, I see these following advantages:
- Performance; Native & compiled is king.
- Ram usage; Kilobytes vs Mega(giga?)bytes.
- UI control which integrates with the rest of the OS (and updates when the underlying OS tweaks the UI)
From a business standpoint, I get your point that these points don't really matter. Users have shown to not care in the slightest at the bloat in programs.
However for code I write in my spare time, I would much rather write my native Linux program in compiled code than to ship a subpar experience to the few who will interact with it.
> I feel like the complaints here are…not really Samsung's fault?
I don't know man, the last time I uninstalled an app on macOS, all I had to do was drag it to the trash. If you find this procedure sane, then I don't know what to tell you.
Samsung is responsible of how users interact with their app, including its install and removal.
There is a new way to make apps to mostly allow this to work, but very few apps have taken advantage of this. That is definitely on Samsung. However, macOS was really like this for many years and if you ship software that talks to your SSD you kind of have to make it this way.
Yes, couldn't make either face masks or toilet paper during covid. Most people will find out how fragile everything is with idiot MBAs optimizing just-in-time for better quarterly reports!
To look at it another way, we're a lot more globalised than in the 1970s. Resources halfway across the planet that you never even knew you depended on can shut you down when they suddenly go away.
> Ressources can be diverted at a much quicker rate with a lot more agility.
That's completely incorrect.
Covid demonstrated that. We have optimized so strongly for profit (outsource everything, just in time inventory, etc.) that we have no robustness in the face of disruption. There are now single chokepoints everywhere.
Yes, we could retool. But nobody will retool without a check from somebody. Everybody will simply hold their breath waiting for the crisis to pass. Everybody held their breath for Covid; they will absolutely do so with the knowledge that the orange clown will disappear in two years.
The thing is, every dollar you spend on insurance is a dollar (and its interest) you lose. Furthermore, we don't know when it will pop. 1 year? 5 years?
The more reasonable solution is probably gradually reduce exposure to US markets by selling SP500 shares and turning to Europe and emerging markets ETFs. No need to cash out 401k.
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