The profit motive is corrupting and polluting every level of the education space.
Teachers are being hamstrung on curriculum. The districts enter into contracts that require the use of certain programs for certain amounts of time. We've known for decades (if not a century) that direct instruction works [1] but you can't sell devices, platforms and consulting services that way.
We're literally at the point in education we were in the 1950s when the health benefits of nicotine in your Q zone were lighting up the airwaves.
And generative AI means it's all but impossible to have take home writing assignments. But hey this is another opportunity to sell AI or cheating detection software, that's often just an em-dash detection [2].
We have a generation that gets to college quite possibly having never written a book. social promotion through grades and the constant distraction of electronic devices in classroom settings. I don't even necessarily blame the parents entirely either because we've constructed a society where 2 people need 5 jobs to make ends meet.
And while all this is going on we have a coordinated and well-funded effort to defund public education and move government funds to private schools based on the failing public education that's failing because we defunded it. This is usually backed up by some baloney study that shows charter shcool produce better results that really comes down to charter schools being able to be selective with enrolments while public schools cannot be. Plus we mingle in special education kids into public education because those programs got defunded too.
And really that's just a bunch of already affluent people who want a tax break for doing somethign they were going to do anyway: send their kids to private schools so they don't have to mingle with the poors and aren't taught inconvenient things like human reproduction, critical thinking and self-determination.
And after all of that we just end up teaching kids how to pass standardized tests.
It has been the dream of the wealthy to eliminate labor since at least the Industrial Revolution (and probably much longer). Workers are annoying. You have to pay them. They demand things like time off and safe working conditions. They hurt profits.
Through the 20th century we saw increased automation that displaced so-caleld blue collar workers who were repeatedly told "get better skills" like this was somehow their fault.
In 2000 we had the dot-com crash that saw massive unemployment in the tech sector. A lot of these people left the industry and never came back. The software engineer to plumber pipeline was a real thing.
2008 saw a crash that eliminated entry-level jobs in many white-collar fields that never came back. This decimated the millenials who did the right thing, went to college and accurred massive debt and then found there were no jobs for them so ended up as baristas, working at Walmart or, ultimately, doing gig work.
And now in the mid-2020s, the tech people who told people to do computer science in college are now seeing automation come for their jobs. And now it's somehow an emergency worth addressing. Weird.
The core problem is that if the wealthy succeed and replace all the workers, who will buy their products? How will society survive if people don't have jobs? The only growth area is healthcare because you need everyone from orderlies to surgeons, at least until automation comes for those jobs too.
This is why I think we're headed for systemic collapse. The flood waters keep rising and we're running out of high ground to retreat to.
I agree on sensing some kind of systemic collapse. It feels those with more resources are getting increasingly efficient at extracting wealth from those with fewer resources.
Every tool increases efficiency at the expense of labor, but when it was the power loom and sewing machine the unemployed seamstresses and weavers couldn't afford to buy one.
This time everyone gets a power loom, though. So... what happens to the value of woven goods? And if we apply this to all modern knowledge work, what happens to the overall economy?
I get the same feeling when thinking about fast food restaurants turning a profit and then usually there is some element I don’t understand like McDonalds land investment play that justifies weaker operational margins. It’s probably going to work out fine but we are too far removed to intuitively get why.
> This is why I think we're headed for systemic collapse.
Unfortunately I think the only thing that will save us long term is systematic collapse triggering mass social and political movements to tax the billionaires.
We have severe cost of living issues for so many Americans, yet we haven’t actually reached that cusp where large swaths of Americans literally start starving, or losing their homes.
Until then, normal Americans will happily consume and believe the lies of politicians saying “grocery prices are going down”, “gas prices are going down”.
> the tech people who told people to do computer science in college are now seeing automation come for their jobs. And now it's somehow an emergency worth addressing.
You are in tech mostly forum, is it really that hard to grok why we discuss this more than other professions? Most folks out there are just happy with llms that they do a better search or help them do bureaucracy more efficiently and don't bother with it further.
Therein lies the problem with hyper-individualism. It's not a virtue. It's just selfish. And short-sighted. It's the basis of First They Came [1].
It's even worse for tech people because tech fundamentally is about systems. Society is a system.
The reaons some of us care so much about how the least of us are affected by these changes is because the fabric of society depends on so many people and it hurts all of us when society falls apart. You don't have to be disabled to care about disabled rights, for example, because everybody is one incident away from being disabled. Just look at long Covid.
This isn't some Darwinian game where the "strong" "win". Or at least it doesn't have to be.
I have a hard time remembering what computers I had in the 1990s now. I had an 8086 in the 1980s. I think the next one I had was a 486/33 in the early 90s and I had this for years. I remember having a Cyrix 586 at some point later. I think the next jump was in the early 2000s and I honestly don't rmeember what that CPU was so I can't say when I got my first 1GHz+ CPU. Probably that 2002 PC. No idea what it was now. But it did survive in some form for another 12 years.
Fun fact #1: many today may not know that the only reason switched to the Pentium name was because a court ruled that they couldn't trademark a number and AMD had cross-licensed the microarchitecture and instruction set to AMD and Cyrix.
It was the Pentium 4 when clock speeds went insane and became a huge marketing point even though Pentium chips had lower IPC than Athlons (at that time). There was a belief that CPUs would keep going to 10GHz+. Instead they hit a ceiling at about ~3GHz, that's barely increased to this day (ignoring burst modes).
Intel originally intended to move workstations and servers to the EPIC architecture (eg Merced was an early chip in this series). This began in the 1990s but was years delayed and required writing software a very particular way. It never delievered on its promise.
And AMD, thanks to the earlier cross-licensing agreement, just ate Intel's lunch with the Athlon 64 starting in 2003 by adding the x86_64 instructions, which we still use today.
Fun Fact #2: it was the Pentium 3 that saved Intel's hide long after it was discontinued in favor of the Pentium 4.
The early 2000s were the nascent era of multi-core CPUs. The Pentium 3 had survived in mobile chips and become the Pentium-M and then the Core Duo (and Core 2 Duo later). This was the Centrino platform and included wireless (IIRC 802.11b/g). The Pentium 4 hit the Gigahertz ceiling and EPIC wasn't going to happen to Intel went back to the drawing board, revived the mobile Pentium-3 platform, adding AMD's 64 bit instructions and released their desktop CPUs. Even modern Intel CPUs are in many ways a derivation of the Pentium-3 [1].
Up until the 486, the clock speed and bus speed were basically the same and topped out at about 33MHz (IIRC). The 486 started the thing of making the CPU speed a multiple of the bus speed eg 486dx2/66 (33MHz CPU, 66MHz bus), 486dx4/100 (25MHz CPU, 100MHz bus). And that's continued to this day (kind of).
But the point is the CPU became a lot faster than the IO speed, including memory. So these "overdrive" CPUs were faster but not 2-4x faster.
Also, in terms of impact, yeah there was a massive incrase in performance through the 1990s but let's not forget the first consumer GPUs, namely 3dfx Voodoo and later NVidia and ATI. Oh, Matrox Millenium anyone?
It's actually kind of wild that NVidia is now a trillion dollar company. It listed in 1998 for $12/share and adjusted for splits, Google is telling me it's ~3700x now.
You got your multipliers backwards with the 486dx. The multipliers was on the CPU core rather than the bus. A dx2 was twice the memory bus speed. The dx4 was (confusingly) three times the bus speed. So a 486dx4/100 was a 33MHz bus with a 100MHz core.
Control of the media has become more important than the direct financial results of that acquisition. We are at a precarious point in history and it's becoming increasingly necessary to manufacture consent to maintain the American imperial project.
Don't think of this in terms on a financial return on investment. A half dozen people control almost all American media because the fear is that without the manufactured consent, the entire system is going to collapse. Historically, that's tended to result in heads on spikes or being hunt from the city walls.
Perhaps it's nihilistic of me but I thought that after the 2024 election, we're now beyond the point where any of this is going to get better through electoral politics. Any democracy now is performative. Both sides are bought and paid for. There is no significant, organized resistance to any of this. Material conditions will continue to get worse.
Think about it: it doesn't matter if you, as Larry Ellison or Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk, have $200 billion or $300 billion or $400 billion. Like that has no impact on your life. There is nothing you can possibly buy that requires more wealth. The goal now is to preserve the system at any cost.
Colonizing Mars never made any sense. Mars has the worst of both worlds when it comes to atmosphere: too little to ever be useful, but enough to be really super annoying (eg by covering your equipment with razor-sharp dust because obviously there's been no water recently to erode those sharp edges). Gravity is still pretty low. There's no radiation protection. So yeah, you were going to be living underground. But you can do that on the Moon without all the atmosphere annoyances and the Moon alreaedy has documented lava tubes so you don't need to excavate.
Remember when Elon said the Moon was a "distraction" and they were going "straight to Mars" [1]? That was only a year ago. At the time my guess was that a) Starship is just badly designed for being a lunar landing vehicle and b) the project is way behind anyway so this was just a way of kicking the can down the street. So what changed?
It's NASA's overhaul of the Artemis and SLS programs (IMHO) [2]. NASA wants to improve these programs by launching them more often and that, in Elon's mind, turns them into more of a competitor and takes money away from SpaceX. It's as simple as that.
I stand by my criticism of Starship: I think history will show it to be the Cybertruck of SpaceX. It's a poorly designed platform and it's beiggest problem is going to be that it has to compete with Falcon 9. It's going to be fantastically expensive to develop. It's still many years away from its promise (eg in-orbit refuelling) and there simply isn't the demand to get payloads that large into LEO or geostationary orbit.
The poster child for all of this is the entertainment industry, both music and especially Hollywood. There's a reason that "nepo babies" is such a pervasive meme now.
More than a decade ago, HBO released Girls and many were surprised to learn that every single cast member in that was a nepo baby of some sort. All these people who've made it in Hollywood end up having children. So someone will try and get a show greenlit and a studio head or an agent or somebody will come along and say "if you put my son/daughter in it, you'll get this financing or simply more chance that the studio will greenlight it". So the entire project may end up being sons, daughters, nephews, nieces, etc.
There are still non-nepo babies in this industry but it becomes harder and harder to make it on pure merit. Even if you're not a nepo baby, you need to be an "influencer". It matters how many follows you have on IG, Tiktok or Twitter. This part isn't new either. Before social media, influece was measured in magazine tears.
Eventually that sort of thing leads to the collapse of an industry.
There's a double-whammy here of the Myth of Meritocracy [1] under capitalism and Prosperity Gospel [2] under Protestantism.
After the Civil War we compensated slave owners. After the GFC we bailed out the banks. The government giving money to poor people is somehow a moral hazard yet the wealthy not only expect government handouts, they demand them.
Many in tech don't seem to realize that after 2 centuries of automation coming for only blue-collar jobs, AI will finally come for theirs. Jobs losses, depressed wages, unpaid extra work and constant layoff churn. The heady heights of the 2010s will seem like a fairy tale.
Except this time, unlike a century ago, there is no labor movement. It's been decimated. There is no effective pushback against further wealth concentration to like 100,000 people. The Jeff Bezoes of the world will demand even more government money so they can have $205 billion instead of $200 billion and things will get really bad until eventually we have a Russian or french type revolution.
Too many people think it's a big club when it isn't. As George Carlin said, you're not in it [3]. People actively advocate for their own worsening material conditions because they're deluded into thinking they'll be Jeff Bezos one day.
When people (myself included FWIW) warn about the dangers of American imperialism, it's because:
1. As President Eisenhower said in his farewell address in 1961 [1], every dollar spent on the military-industrial complex is a dollar not spent on schools or houses or hospitals or bridges;
2. Every American company with sufficient size eventually becomes a defense contractor. That's really what's happened with the tech companies. They're moving in lockstep with the administration on both domestic and foreign policy;
3. The so-called "imperial boomerang" [2]. Every tactic, weapon and strategy used against colonial subjects are eventually used against the imperial core eg [3]. Do you think it's an accident that US police forces have become increasingly militarized?
The example I like to give is China's high speed rail. China started building HSR only 20 years ago and now has over 32,000 miles of HSR tracks taking ~4M passengers per day. The estimated cost for the entire network is ~$900B. That's less than the US spends on the military every year.
I really what Steve Jobs would've done were he still alive. Tim Apple has bent the knee and kissed the ring. Would Steve Jobs have done the same? I'm not so sure. He may well have been ousted (again) because of it.
Then again, I think Steve Jobs was the only Silicon Valley billlionaire not in a transhumanist polycule with a more than even chance of being in the files.
Thank you for mentioning the term 'imperial boomerang'. You really saw it in the militarization of the police after the Iraq War. Gone are the donut munchers.
> I really what Steve Jobs would've done were he still alive. Tim Apple has bent the knee and kissed the ring. Would Steve Jobs have done the same? I'm not so sure. He may well have been ousted (again) because of it.
Given that Steve Jobs was best friends with Larry Ellison, I’d say he wouldn’t have bent the knee because he would’ve been standing hand in hand with Trump, just like Larry.
>1. As President Eisenhower said in his farewell address in 1961 [1], every dollar spent on the military-industrial complex is a dollar not spent on schools or houses or hospitals or bridges;
This humanist view unfortunately doesn’t hold anymore in the modern world. Boomers will be happy as long as not a single dollar is spent on housing, so that their own homes can appreciate in value. Republicans would rather burn money than spend it on houses, hospitals, or bridges that might benefit immigrants or “other people” more than themselves.
I used an American political party only as a reference, but the same phenomenon can be seen in many countries around the world. Society has become incredibly cynical and has regressed a lot in terms of humanity.
>"Boomers will be happy as long as not a single dollar is spent on housing"
Not sure what boomers you are talking about. I for one am disgusted at what is happening with the things in general and with the housing in particular. I do not want my house to appreciate Ad infinitum. I do not want to have ever growing class of have-not's so that few jerks can own the governments and half of the world.
Just so we're on the same page, the GP was reeferring to "baby boomers", as in people born 1945-1965. Maybe you know that and that's when you were born. I don't know. But "boomer" has taken on a slang meaning the latest few years for someone who's simply not tech-savvy or is otherwise out-of-touch.
Generational politics has definite limits and isn't absolute but it's also true that the Baby Boomer generation as a whole enjoyed the great opportunities and wealth generation opportunities in history. They fled to the suburbs, subsidized by the government every step of the way, and then basically pulled up the ladder behind them. They also refuse to quit.
And then when crime receded (and there are multiple theories for why this happened), they moved back into the city, bought up all the real estate and then blocked building affordable housing there too.
I personally have a theory that the parting gift of the Baby Boomer generation will be to get rid of Social Security and Medicare since they don't need it anymore.
> I personally have a theory that the parting gift of the Baby Boomer generation will be to get rid of Social Security and Medicare since they don't need it anymore.
They do need social security and Medicare. Studies show even with social security and Medicare half or more might struggle in retirement due to insufficient savings.
Cantor Fitzgerald lost most of its staff in the World Trade Center on 9/11. Lutnick sued American Airlines, eventually settling for $135 million [1]. He claimed this would largely go to the family of hte victims.
Turns out most (if not all) of it went to the senior executive team, wtih himself being the primary beneficiary [2].
This is also the same Howard Lutnick who the DoJ accidentally released a photo of with Jeffrey Epstein [3]. People noticed and they removed it. People noticed that too so they restored it.
Teachers are being hamstrung on curriculum. The districts enter into contracts that require the use of certain programs for certain amounts of time. We've known for decades (if not a century) that direct instruction works [1] but you can't sell devices, platforms and consulting services that way.
We're literally at the point in education we were in the 1950s when the health benefits of nicotine in your Q zone were lighting up the airwaves.
And generative AI means it's all but impossible to have take home writing assignments. But hey this is another opportunity to sell AI or cheating detection software, that's often just an em-dash detection [2].
We have a generation that gets to college quite possibly having never written a book. social promotion through grades and the constant distraction of electronic devices in classroom settings. I don't even necessarily blame the parents entirely either because we've constructed a society where 2 people need 5 jobs to make ends meet.
And while all this is going on we have a coordinated and well-funded effort to defund public education and move government funds to private schools based on the failing public education that's failing because we defunded it. This is usually backed up by some baloney study that shows charter shcool produce better results that really comes down to charter schools being able to be selective with enrolments while public schools cannot be. Plus we mingle in special education kids into public education because those programs got defunded too.
And really that's just a bunch of already affluent people who want a tax break for doing somethign they were going to do anyway: send their kids to private schools so they don't have to mingle with the poors and aren't taught inconvenient things like human reproduction, critical thinking and self-determination.
And after all of that we just end up teaching kids how to pass standardized tests.
[1]: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2018/02/di...
[2]: https://medium.com/@brentcsutoras/the-em-dash-dilemma-how-a-...
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