Yes and don't forget consumer preferences. This is Hacker News where they are still clamoring for a "small smartphone" because everything else is too big. Shocker, small phones don't sell. Neither do bulky ones when compared to sleek iPhones.
This year's winner of the nobel prize is highly organized and ran a parallel election campaign, which was obviously dismissed by the Maduro regime. There is a slim possibility of a peaceful transition given the democratic efforts underway in Venezuela for many years at this point.
POTUS just said she's not involved, won't be involved, doesn't have the support necessary to lead. Who does? Unclear. His plan appears to be: "oil companies come in, sell the oil" and I'm seriously not exaggerating.
> His plan appears to be: "oil companies come in, sell the oil"
In terms of nation-building, it's not the worst plan. See Carville's "It's the economy, stupid."
Popular support of any government is mostly (a) quality of life & (b) individual freedom. Quality of life is directly correlated to the economy and public finances.
If someone can quickly boost Venezuelan oil production, and therefore state revenue, then all sorts of social funding programs become feasible.
The issue with autocracies is that they selectively enrich key supporter groups (internal police, military) at the expense of others (wider population).
If you can substantially boost public revenue, then you don't have to make a tradeoff -- everyone gets more!
And there are certainly worse beginnings for new governments.
(All of this ignoring the flagrant violation of international law, international ramifications vis-a-vis Taiwan, climate change, etc.)
Well, Trump is probably the least qualified person in the administration to ask that question of, while at the same time no one wanted to risk contradicting his fancies on recorded television.
A bad look, but I seriously doubt the state department doesn't have some sort of plan for continuity of government.
Especially since, in critical difference with post-Hussein Iraq, no one in this administration seems ideologically opposed to working with the old guard, if they put on new colors.
Would be very surprised if the remaining elements of the government aren't put in temporary charge with guidelines (no killing protestors, freeing political prisoners, monitored elections on X date, etc.), then things are left business as usual.
With additional strikes if anyone tries to buck the system.
But higher placed members of corrupt regimes tend to be pretty pragmatic about their own skins when the winds shift, so I'd be surprised if anyone goes to the mat for a leader who's already been extradited.
The President of the United States has stated over and over now that there is no transition plan. There is no successor. There is no plan for elections.
This isn't "he hasn't been asked" or "he has declined to comment." He has said affirmatively there is no plan.
So either he's lying or there's no plan.
In either case, my presentation is correct, and your assumptions are completely unfounded.
Trump's Reaganesque in Reagan's weaknesses, without any of his strengths. Except maybe charisma to some people.
At this point in his second administration, I'm firmly convinced that the bulk of the details aren't communicated to him and/or he forgets them.
Big decisions? Sure, he makes yes/no. But "Let me hear the plan for day x+1?" In what universe would the Trump we've seen ask that question? We're talking about the McDonald's guy.
> I'm firmly convinced that the bulk of the details aren't communicated to him and/or he forgets them.
But at the same time:
> time no one wanted to risk contradicting his fancies on recorded television.
So they're making plans, but they won't actually commit to any of the plans because in the end the plans are meaningless and Trump is going to push for whatever he wants at the moment. Doesn't that make the actual plans practically worthless?
Under the hood here you're assuming Trump is (largely) incompetent to lead but surrounded by people who 1) know that and 2) are competent themselves.
A scarier possibility, which I think is actually far better evidenced, is that he's surrounded by people who largely believe he's competent (because it's a cult) and who are themselves not competent at all.
I think the people around him believe (1) he's competent to win the popularity contest that is an election & (2) he's vengeful against any perceived disloyalty.
There are probably some true-believers among his cabinet, but most of those are evidenced by their paper-thin CVs and lack of their own power-bases (Hegseth, Bondi, Rollins, Chavez-DeRemer, Turner, McMahon, Noem, Zeldin, Loeffler).
>In terms of nation-building, it's not the worst plan.
Building which nation? The despotic dictatorship of USA one would have to assume you mean. The profits are no more likely to go to Venezuela's further development than they are to bring in universal health care in USA.
QoL is nothing if it is bought through the pain and suffering of others.
I don't know why you think this is a new beginning, it's just extension of USA's dictatorship to ensure even more people suffer and the USA oligarchy gets even more insanely wealthy.
I don't think it has dawned on the HN crowd how insatiable the demand for dollars across the world is. This stuff is being used in all corners of the world, and accelerating.
Stablecoins offer a relentless price insensitive buyer of US debt. This is good for America, good for democracy, and good for property rights globally.
However, stablecoins WILL cause unrest in Nigeria, Venezuela, Lebanon, and Turkey as their corrupt local currency completely erodes and the ruling class can no longer extract from their citizens.
Confidence in crypto will go poof when there's a big enough run that the measly 7 transactions per second can't keep up with demand. We just haven't seen a crypto bank run yet. The $100 / transaction is nothing compared to what it could be. When that happens "stable" coins will lose their stability and the smoke and mirrors behind audit-free coins will collapse. You couldn't pay me to hold crypto.
If tether wants to maintain their dominant position (they do) then they will work to be compliant with the LAW, on a timeline deemed appropriate by the law makers.
The LAW is spelled "keep in good standing with the President". He might feel his little coin grifts are left behind.
On a timeline deemed appropriate by the law makers is making a lot of heavy lifting here. The (GOP) lawmakers won't lift a finger to do anything unless the Leader says so.
You keep calling out people who ask reasonable questions about Tether/crypto truthers. If I were you I'd probably rethink that strategy as it doesn't seem to be working out well.
Like, even Enron and Wirecard passed audits, so it's pretty weird that Tether can't.
You're right that Tether claims they could not previously get an audit and need the government to smooth the way (https://www.reuters.com/technology/tether-is-talks-with-big-...), but why would that be the case? Companies get audited all the time. Tether seems to have their own "conspiratorial trutherism" in mind, where the Biden administration secretly told all the major audit firms that they mustn't allow Tether to be audited because that might make crypto look good. And even that doesn't explain why they couldn't get an audit from 2017 to 2020.
To me the obvious explanation is that they would not pass an honest audit, and hope having the CEO of their primary brokerage in the Cabinet will help them cheat.
This number will continue to climb and I am confident before the decade ends, stablecoins broadly will be the largest holder of US debt. The interests are fully aligned between the issuers and US govt - issuers keep the interest, US has a price insensitive buyer of debt.
This is ultimately good for the world, good for democracy, and good for the downtrodden and underprivileged members of corrupt countries such as Nigeria, Venezuela, Lebanon, and Turkey, who have suffered their own currency crises to the great detriment of their citizens. With only an Internet connection, US dollar stablecoins give them property rights which can't be voided through an act of the corrupt ruling class.
Before the tether truthers come out, update your priors. This industry is very different than it was in 2015. It has grown up substantially. The GENIUS act is the largest banking and financial reform of the last 100 years, and the consequences will shape the 21st century and local currencies globally.
>This is ultimately good for the world, good for democracy, and good for the downtrodden and underprivileged members of corrupt countries such as Nigeria, Venezuela, Lebanon, and Turkey.
Wow, US has found a gold mine: The super full wallets of Venezuelans, Nigerians and Lebanese! They will buy a trillion of USDT to prop up US debt!
You mentioned 4 countries that are dirt poor and need to buy food, not stablecoins. The people in those countries who have money don't need stablecoins to invest in the US.
> good for the downtrodden and underprivileged members of corrupt countries such as Nigeria, Venezuela, Lebanon, and Turkey, who have suffered their own currency crises to the great detriment of their citizens.
Well, except that it ties them to USD, an ultimately doomed currency. The short-term interests are aligned, but they'd be better off with a locally-managed currency and simply banning the USD from being held by either the state or any of its representatives.
I'm not arguing for those local currencies; I'm just saying that the USD is never going to be managed with nigerians in mind and it'd be ridiculous to imagine it would be.
Hell, the USD isn't even managed with americans in mind. We just happen to live here.
Stablecoins are now a regulated industry with laws in place to address this very concern. Tether is currently not compliant, but as the largest player in the space, has a great incentive to maintain its dominance.
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